Related questions this article answers
- Is Moody's stock overvalued right now?
- Is MCO undervalued?
- Should I buy Moody's stock?
- Is now a good time to buy MCO?
- What is Moody's's fair value?
- Is MCO a good long term investment?
The short answer
Short answer: Moody's looks overvalued at current levels. Compared with the recent share price of $457.10, the current DCF output near $189.35 suggests Moody's is about 141.4% overvalued on these cash flow assumptions. Moody's is being judged partly on software style economics, with gross margin near 69.7%. The honest question is whether future growth and margin durability are strong enough to support the multiple from here.
Why valuing this kind of financial services company is more complex than it looks
Moody's operates in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges, where valuation often depends on recurring revenue quality, margin expansion, and how long growth can stay above the broader market.
The reason this matters is simple. Two companies can show similar headline multiples and still deserve very different valuations because their margins, cash conversion, and growth durability are not the same.
The 5 key metrics applied to Moody's
A single ratio rarely tells the whole story. This framework starts with trailing P/E, forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, and price to sales, then keeps only the metrics that are present and usable for this company.
Trailing P/E
Trailing P/E compares the current share price with the last twelve months of earnings. For Moody's, the current reading is 33.3x. Shows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings.
Forward P/E
Forward P/E uses expected earnings instead of trailing earnings. For Moody's, the current reading is 92.6x. Shows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings.
PEG ratio
PEG compares the earnings multiple with expected growth. For Moody's, the current reading is 4.8x. Helps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth.
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value with operating profit before depreciation and amortization. For Moody's, the current reading is 24.4x. Adds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation.
Price to sales
Price to sales compares market value with revenue. For Moody's, the current reading is 10.1x. Useful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings.
Free cash flow yield
Free cash flow yield compares free cash flow with market value. For Moody's, the current reading is 3.7%. Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value.
| Metric | Current value | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 33.3x | Shows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 92.6x | Shows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings. |
| PEG ratio | 4.8x | Helps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth. |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.4x | Adds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation. |
| Price to sales | 10.1x | Useful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings. |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.7% | Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value. |
| Gross margin | 69.7% | Shows how much of Moody's's revenue remains after direct costs. |
| Revenue growth | 8.9% | Shows whether Moody's's top line is still expanding. |
The table is a snapshot of the current setup. It is meant to frame the valuation question, not replace the company specific analysis below.
Moody's's valuation breakdown
As of Q2 2026, Moody's traded near $457.10 with a market value near $79.86B.
| Metric | Current value | What it suggests |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 33.3x | Shows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings. |
| Forward P/E | 92.6x | Shows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings. |
| PEG ratio | 4.8x | Helps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth. |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.4x | Adds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation. |
| Price to sales | 10.1x | Useful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings. |
| Free cash flow yield | 3.7% | Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value. |
| Gross margin | 69.7% | Shows how much of Moody's's revenue remains after direct costs. |
| Revenue growth | 8.9% | Shows whether Moody's's top line is still expanding. |
Metrics move with the market and with each earnings update. If a field is missing or stale, it is intentionally left out here rather than guessed.
What the numbers tell us
The first thing to notice with Moody's is the gap between trailing and forward earnings valuation. Trailing P/E is near 33.3x while forward P/E is near 92.6x, which tells you the market is already underwriting a specific earnings path.
- Moody's's forward P/E is not offering much relief versus the trailing multiple, so the market may still be paying up before the earnings improvement is fully visible.
- Moody's's PEG ratio near 4.8x matters because it tests whether the earnings multiple is being balanced by a credible growth rate.
- Moody's's price to sales multiple near 10.1x needs to be read beside revenue growth near 8.9%, because rich revenue multiples only hold up when growth quality stays intact.
Moody's's competitive position
Moody's's competitive position matters because software infrastructure businesses are often valued on retention, pricing power, and the ability to expand within existing customers over time.
What would make Moody's look cheaper or more expensive?
What would make it look cheaper
- Moody's would look cheaper if growth held up while the forward earnings multiple compressed.
- Moody's would also look more attractive if free cash flow improved faster than the share price.
What would make it look expensive
- Moody's would look expensive if revenue growth slowed materially while the market kept valuing it like a durable growth platform.
- Moody's would also look expensive if margins stopped expanding but the stock kept a premium multiple.
Financial Services valuation context
Moody's operates in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges, where valuation often depends on recurring revenue quality, margin expansion, and how long growth can stay above the broader market.
The verdict
Moody's looks priced for a very strong execution path from here. The stock can still work, but future earnings and cash flow need to validate the premium already in the shares. With forward P/E near 92.6x, the market is already making a judgment about the next stage of earnings power.
This is analysis of publicly available market data. It is not financial advice, and it should be read in the context of personal goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
Want to run the numbers yourself?
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Data source: TopTier Strategy research platform - toptierstrategy.com/research. Data as of 2026-05-08T00:36:54.094253.