Company Valuation

Is Moody's (MCO) Overvalued or Undervalued? A Complete Valuation Analysis 2026

Moody's is being judged partly on software style economics, with gross margin near 69.7%. The valuation debate is about recurring revenue quality, margin durability, and how much growth the market is already assuming.

Moody's Overview

Key Metrics

2.0 of 5

Valuation

4.5of 5

Profitability

4.5of 5

Financial Health

2.5of 5

Shareholder Returns

5.0of 5

Growth Outlook

This article focuses on valuation. The other four pillars are intentionally blurred here to keep the page centered on the valuation question. View the full key metrics and analysis breakdown on TopTierStrategy.com.

Related questions this article answers

The short answer

Short answer: Moody's looks overvalued at current levels. Compared with the recent share price of $457.10, the current DCF output near $189.35 suggests Moody's is about 141.4% overvalued on these cash flow assumptions. Moody's is being judged partly on software style economics, with gross margin near 69.7%. The honest question is whether future growth and margin durability are strong enough to support the multiple from here.

Why valuing this kind of financial services company is more complex than it looks

Moody's operates in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges, where valuation often depends on recurring revenue quality, margin expansion, and how long growth can stay above the broader market.

The reason this matters is simple. Two companies can show similar headline multiples and still deserve very different valuations because their margins, cash conversion, and growth durability are not the same.

The 5 key metrics applied to Moody's

A single ratio rarely tells the whole story. This framework starts with trailing P/E, forward P/E, PEG, EV/EBITDA, and price to sales, then keeps only the metrics that are present and usable for this company.

Trailing P/E

Trailing P/E compares the current share price with the last twelve months of earnings. For Moody's, the current reading is 33.3x. Shows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings.

Forward P/E

Forward P/E uses expected earnings instead of trailing earnings. For Moody's, the current reading is 92.6x. Shows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings.

PEG ratio

PEG compares the earnings multiple with expected growth. For Moody's, the current reading is 4.8x. Helps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth.

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value with operating profit before depreciation and amortization. For Moody's, the current reading is 24.4x. Adds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation.

Price to sales

Price to sales compares market value with revenue. For Moody's, the current reading is 10.1x. Useful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings.

Free cash flow yield

Free cash flow yield compares free cash flow with market value. For Moody's, the current reading is 3.7%. Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value.

MetricCurrent valueWhat it suggests
Trailing P/E33.3xShows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings.
Forward P/E92.6xShows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings.
PEG ratio4.8xHelps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth.
EV/EBITDA24.4xAdds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation.
Price to sales10.1xUseful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings.
Free cash flow yield3.7%Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value.
Gross margin69.7%Shows how much of Moody's's revenue remains after direct costs.
Revenue growth8.9%Shows whether Moody's's top line is still expanding.

The table is a snapshot of the current setup. It is meant to frame the valuation question, not replace the company specific analysis below.

Moody's's valuation breakdown

As of Q2 2026, Moody's traded near $457.10 with a market value near $79.86B.

MetricCurrent valueWhat it suggests
Trailing P/E33.3xShows what the market is paying for Moody's's recent earnings.
Forward P/E92.6xShows how the market is valuing Moody's's expected earnings.
PEG ratio4.8xHelps show whether the earnings multiple is being offset by expected growth.
EV/EBITDA24.4xAdds a capital structure aware check on operating valuation.
Price to sales10.1xUseful when revenue mix, margins, or future scaling matter as much as near term earnings.
Free cash flow yield3.7%Shows how much cash Moody's is generating relative to its market value.
Gross margin69.7%Shows how much of Moody's's revenue remains after direct costs.
Revenue growth8.9%Shows whether Moody's's top line is still expanding.

Metrics move with the market and with each earnings update. If a field is missing or stale, it is intentionally left out here rather than guessed.

What the numbers tell us

The first thing to notice with Moody's is the gap between trailing and forward earnings valuation. Trailing P/E is near 33.3x while forward P/E is near 92.6x, which tells you the market is already underwriting a specific earnings path.

Moody's's competitive position

Moody's's competitive position matters because software infrastructure businesses are often valued on retention, pricing power, and the ability to expand within existing customers over time.

What would make Moody's look cheaper or more expensive?

What would make it look cheaper

What would make it look expensive

Financial Services valuation context

Moody's operates in Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges, where valuation often depends on recurring revenue quality, margin expansion, and how long growth can stay above the broader market.

The verdict

Moody's looks priced for a very strong execution path from here. The stock can still work, but future earnings and cash flow need to validate the premium already in the shares. With forward P/E near 92.6x, the market is already making a judgment about the next stage of earnings power.

This is analysis of publicly available market data. It is not financial advice, and it should be read in the context of personal goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

Want to run the numbers yourself?

Use TopTier Strategy research tools to review MCO's live valuation profile, stock page, and related company analysis.

Frequently asked questions

Is Moody's stock overvalued in 2026?
Based on the current research read, Moody's looks overvalued in 2026. The main drivers in this read are trailing P/E near 33.3x and forward P/E near 92.6x, gross margin near 69.7%, free cash flow yield near 3.7%. Moody's is being judged partly on software style economics, with gross margin near 69.7%.
Is Moody's a good stock to buy right now?
Moody's can still work for investors who believe the next few years will be stronger than the market already expects, but the current setup leaves less room for disappointment.
What is Moody's's fair value?
A fair value estimate depends on the mix of earnings, growth, margins, and cash generation rather than on a single published number. For Moody's, the current read is shaped mainly by trailing P/E near 33.3x and forward P/E near 92.6x, gross margin near 69.7%, free cash flow yield near 3.7%. This article does not publish a stand alone fair value number unless there is a clearly supportable public methodology behind it.
Can you value Moody's just on P/E?
No. Moody's needs to be read through multiple valuation lenses, including forward earnings, revenue multiples, cash flow, and business quality.
Where can I analyze MCO with current data?
Use the TopTier Strategy research platform at toptierstrategy.com/research to review live valuation, profitability, financial health, shareholder returns, and growth data for MCO.

Data source: TopTier Strategy research platform - toptierstrategy.com/research. Data as of 2026-05-08T00:36:54.094253.

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